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VOLITIONRX LTD (VNRX)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 revenue was $0.41M, up 3% year-over-year and up 65% sequential; EPS was ($0.06); revenue beat consensus while EPS missed. Management emphasized progressing multiple human diagnostics licensing discussions and expects the first human out‑licensing agreement imminently, positioning licensing as a core monetization path .
  • Cost discipline continued: total operating expenses fell 9% YoY in Q2; net loss improved 11% YoY; cash and equivalents ended at $2.26M; subsequent to quarter-end, the company raised $1.21M via a registered direct offering .
  • Volition recorded “just over $0.4 million” in Q2 revenue and highlighted first revenue from Nu.Q NETs human product sales; management reiterated no formal revenue guidance due to lumpiness, with a full-year aim to be cash neutral subject to executing licensing deals .
  • Key catalysts: first human out‑licensing deal expected “this quarter,” CE‑marked Nu.Q NETs availability across 27 EU countries, expanding Nu.Q Discover adoption (>20 clients), and financing flexibility (ATM capacity increased to $30M) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “We are making strong progress and expect the first human out licensing deal this quarter,” with >10 companies engaged across due diligence, tech transfer, clinical sample evaluation, term sheets, and contract finalization .
  • Operating efficiency gains: Q2 total operating expenses down 9% YoY; net loss improved 11% YoY; first half operating costs down 22% and net loss down 24% .
  • Platform traction: Nu.Q Discover expanded to over 20 clients, with largest project in the hundreds of thousands of dollars and repeat orders from global pharma; underpins future companion diagnostics partnership potential .

What Went Wrong

  • EPS missed consensus in Q2; actual EPS was approximately ($0.065) vs consensus ($0.049), reflecting ongoing investment and financing costs, including amortization of debt discount [*].
  • Cash position remained constrained at $2.26M at quarter-end, necessitating additional capital raises and a senior secured convertible note; going concern risk remains disclosed .
  • Revenue remains “lumpy and difficult to predict,” leading management to withhold 2025 revenue guidance; product revenue declined YoY in Q2 even as services grew, highlighting variability during early commercialization .

Financial Results

Revenue, EPS, Operating Loss vs prior year, prior quarter, and consensus

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Consensus (Q2 2025)
Revenue ($USD)$395,797 $246,385 $406,688 $375,720*
EPS (Basic & Diluted, $)($0.08) ($0.06) ($0.06) ($0.04857)*
Operating Loss ($USD)($7,060,175) ($5,521,720) ($6,297,807) —

Notes: * Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment/Revenue Mix

Revenue ComponentQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Services ($USD)$116,090 $115,476 $161,778
Product ($USD)$279,707 $130,909 $244,910
Total ($USD)$395,797 $246,385 $406,688

KPIs and Balance Sheet Highlights

KPIQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Total Operating Expenses ($USD)$7,386,216 $5,768,105 $6,704,495
Net Loss ($USD)($7,060,175) ($5,476,627) ($6,314,070)
Cash & Equivalents ($USD)—$2,600,342 $2,255,996
Deferred Revenue – total ($USD)—$22,893,400 $22,785,841 (current $122,441; non-current $22,663,400)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueFY 2025Not providedNot providing revenue guidance due to lumpiness Maintained (no guidance)
Cash Neutral TargetFY 2025Aim to be cash neutral on a full-year basis Reiterated as dependent on licensing execution and cost control Maintained
Capital Raising Capacity (ATM)OngoingATM up to $7.5M ATM increased to up to $30M on Aug 14, 2025 Raised
FinancingNear-term—Received $1.21M registered direct offering post-quarter New

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Human diagnostics licensing“>10 companies” engaged; focus on Nu.Q platform monetization First human out‑licensing deal expected “this quarter”; multiple deal structures with upfront/milestones Accelerating toward first deal
Commercial traction – Nu.Q NETsCE mark; first regulated product revenue recorded in Europe Continued commercialization progress; first revenue for human product Nu.Q NETs cited Early commercialization milestones
Cost disciplineQ1 cash ops use ~$1.4M/month; OpEx down Q2 OpEx down 9% YoY; H1 OpEx down 22%; net loss improved Sustained cost reductions
Nu.Q Discover adoptionService revenue growth; TAM model outlined >20 clients; largest project hundreds of thousands; repeat orders Building pipeline and revenue base
Capital structureRD offering in March; Lind secured convertible note Post‑Q second offering $1.21M; ATM capacity lifted to $30M Enhanced financing flexibility

Management Commentary

  • Cameron Reynolds, CEO: “Overall, we are making strong progress and expect the first human out licensing deal this quarter.” He highlighted >10 active counterparties and broad applicability of Nu.Q in cancer and sepsis with potential for upfront/milestone payments plus recurring revenue .
  • CFO commentary emphasized operational discipline and early commercialization: “Total operating expenses for the second quarter declined 9%… net cash used in operating activities was $6.3 million… we recorded the first revenue for sales of a human product, Nu.Q NETs,” while reiterating no formal revenue guidance due to lumpiness at this stage .

Q&A Highlights

  • Licensing timeline and scope: Questions focused on timing of the first human out‑licensing agreement and expected economics (upfront/milestones/royalties); management reiterated near‑term signing expectations and varied deal structures .
  • Commercialization path for Nu.Q NETs: Clarified early human product revenues and the ramp dynamics in EU markets with CE‑marked assays, emphasizing partner‑led adoption .
  • Cash runway and financing: Discussed operating cash use, Lind note mechanics, and subsequent $1.21M raise; highlighted ATM expansion to $30M to increase flexibility .
  • Revenue visibility: Management reiterated variability and thus withheld 2025 revenue guidance; focus remains on licensing receipts to reach cash neutrality .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025: Revenue beat; EPS miss versus Wall Street consensus.
    • Revenue: $406,688 actual vs $375,720 consensus → +8% beat *.
    • EPS: approximately ($0.065) actual vs ($0.0486) consensus → miss; 10‑Q basic/diluted EPS reported ($0.06) *.
  • Forward look: Consensus sees revenue of ~$0.72M in Q3 2025 and ~$0.77M in Q4 2025; EPS consensus of ($0.0443) in Q3 and ($0.04) in Q4*.

Notes: * Values retrieved from S&P Global.

MetricQ3 2025Q4 2025
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD)715,590*772,250*
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)(0.04429)*(0.04)*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near‑term licensing catalyst: Management expects first human out‑licensing “this quarter”; execution would validate platform economics and could materially improve cash neutrality prospects .
  • Early commercialization momentum: Q2 revenue beat and first Nu.Q NETs human product sales support the commercialization thesis; service revenue growth via Nu.Q Discover diversifies the base .
  • Continued cash discipline but financing remains essential: Net loss improved and OpEx reduced; subsequent $1.21M raise and expanded ATM offer runway while licensing deals are pursued .
  • Estimates likely to adjust: Revenue beat vs consensus suggests upward revisions for near‑term sales, while EPS miss and financing costs may temper EPS trajectories until licensing milestones materialize*.
  • Trading lens: Stock sensitivity to licensing headlines is high; a signed human deal could re‑rate the name; conversely, delays may refocus attention on cash runway and dilution risk .
  • Medium‑term thesis: Multi‑pillar monetization (Vet, NETs, Discover, Cancer) with partner‑led distribution and IP licensing can create a high operating leverage model once upfront/milestones/royalties scale .
  • Risk factors: Going concern language persists; revenue lumpiness and reliance on third parties for distribution and manufacturing remain key execution risks .

Additional references and events relevant to Q2 2025:

  • Groundbreaking lateral flow nucleosome test for point‑of‑care demonstrated in blinded feasibility study, expanding platform use cases .
  • Critical Care peer‑reviewed study (MARS cohort, n=1,713) supported Nu.Q H3.1 as a clinically meaningful NETosis marker in sepsis and organ failure, bolstering clinical utility narrative .
  • AMAMS 2025: Two oral presentations supporting use cases in veterinary oncology, aiding Nu.Q Vet adoption in Asia .